Thomas Edison once said “Until man duplicates a blade of grass, nature can laugh at his so-called scientific knowledge.” Well whilst this may not be attainable any time soon, the industry is getting closer and having had to navigate some treacherous industry waters over the last few years there is a certain amount of optimism (tinged with some trepidation) about the future.

The polymeric shoots of recovery have been evident since the disruption of the pandemic and AMI forecast volumes rising to just under 480Mm2 by the end of 2027.

There are of course still many challenges, most of which revolve around the broad topic of sustainability (PFAS, microplastics and recycling of end-of–life artificial turf) but having been slightly caught out by the recent intentional microplastics ban in Europe, the industries in Europe and North America are trying to ensure their voices are heard with reasoned argument on upcoming PFAS and secondary microplastic issues.

Generally though there has been a “wait and see” attitude with customer confidence and spending power not high but with the major disruption of recent years dwindling (and returning to normal standard disruption!) steady growth is on the horizon.

Latent demand is there but price is currently an important parameter which has led to increased imports of cheaper leisure and landscape product into most regions. This continues to be a concern and a challenge not just to immediate bottom lines but also of the wider industry perception and longer-term damage.

However, despite environmental and safety concerns, the market offers growth potential over the next 5 years in all sectors with new products and systems under development, automation, a changing climate (wetter and drier), and continued urbanisation all contributing factors.

Market Numbers:

The value of the artificial turf market in 2023 excluding components (such as infill, shock pads and drainage media) and installation was €3.16 billion up from €2.8 billion in 2021, an increase of 13% over the 2-year period. By 2027 it is expected to rise to €3.98 billion.

Demand for artificial turf reached 393Mm2 in 2023, representing an average 6.2% p.a. growth since 2021. This came from a recovery in the sports market and continued (albeit lower than the previous period) growth in leisure and landscape. The fastest growing regions by percentage were North America at 10.1% p.a. and the Far East at 7.9% p.a., although Europe is the top market now in terms of overall demand, albeit with numbers very similar to the Far East market. Regional variations in growth reflect differing penetration levels for sports and leisure & landscape turf set against the global economic headwinds and reduction in disposable income which have stabilised in many areas.

Interestingly 2021 saw global demand for leisure & landscape applications overtake sports demand for the first time, accounting for 53% of the market. In 2023 this had increased to 55% as steady demand carried on, although with the sport sector increasing once again this split is expected to remain at a similar level over the coming few years.

Market Drivers:

In the evolving landscape of the global artificial turf market, three primary areas of focus have emerged over the last couple of years: environmental impact, market perception, and technological advancements. These facets are crucial for stakeholders aiming to navigate the complexities of the market while promoting sustainable practices.

The big and main driver has been and will continue to be environmental and sustainability topics. A maturing market requires more nuance and as annoying as it is to hear about sustainability at every turn, it is a growing commercial battleground and ESG a necessity for funders, customers and the wider public. Sustainability remains a high priority, with industry players innovating to improve recyclability and reduce environmental footprints. By way of an example, the Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) launched by ESTC in 2024 helps provide measures that are pivotal in enhancing customer awareness and driving eco-friendly product choices.

Awareness and education on the subject from end users and consumers is increasing constantly and has to be addressed on many fronts. End-of-life options and recycling facilities is the most widely understood but there is undercapacity, and in some regions no capacity, in the market so an urgent need to develop recycling solutions for artificial turf. Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes are set to increase in number in North America and Europe as national and local governments take a stance.

In 2023 around 72Mm2 of sports turf required disposal globally (up from 64Mm2 in 2021), less than 10% of which was recycled. By 2027 this requirement will increase to 93Mm2. In Europe in 2023, where disposal regulations are amongst the tightest and landfill increasingly expensive (and increasingly not an option), several mechanical recycling plants are now in operation, but they processed only about 16% of the sports turf that required disposal.

The ripple effects of a European ban on intentionally added microplastics is seeing is a notable shift towards natural and organic infills, with volumes of natural materials increasing by 18.6% from 2021 to 2023. This trend is expected to continue as the market develops in North America as well as Europe. Organic infills, including cork, wood chips, walnut husks, corn, sugar cane, and olive pits, are forming a larger percentage of the overall infill market although it is blends that are likely to be widely adopted offering options for different applications and climates.

The knock on effect will be a growth in shock pads and alternative systems that don’t require performance infill and AMI will be tracking all these numbers over the coming years.

Despite the benefits, natural infills face several challenges which are centred around availability (the regional nature of natural materials means transportation to other parts of the world can add cost and emissions) and education / perception (there is a need for better education among decision-makers to ensure appropriate use and understanding of natural infills).

With regards the qualitative aspects, the artificial turf industry faces increasing public scrutiny, especially regarding its environmental impact. Consumer dissatisfaction / perception (with poor quality product) and environmental concerns are emerging and in areas organised opposition having an influence. Some turf producers are responding by installer training and improved marketing practices and others by promoting the strong resonating messaging around community benefit, more play for children and community pride.

Challenges and Future Directions:

One of the main challenges in managing end-of-life turf is the mixed composition of materials—such as different polymers in backings and fibres—that complicates recycling. Innovations are focused on developing turfs that are easier to recycle, ideally with a single polymeric stream. However, such products are currently limited due to their higher cost.

There are also regional disparities in recycling capacity, with Europe being the most advanced, while North America and other regions still have a long way to go. Capacity needs to increase to keep up with the growing demand for end-of-life turf management.

Moreover, the industry faces public and media scrutiny over the disposal of artificial turf, necessitating proactive measures to improve sustainability practices and enhance recycling infrastructure.

On a more positive front:

• There are growing opportunities and patents being registered for natural infills.
• AMI expect to see a growth in ‘high end’ and niche products and boutique type producers (200,000 – 300,000 m2 per annum) who specialise in the leisure sector, as a section of consumers move away from the influx of cheaper and less durable / quality products.
• Creating spaces where children (and dogs!) can play will be a significant growth area over the next 5 years.
• There is increasing utilisation of synthetic turf on roof tops and other areas that replace hardscaping surfaces and can help with water management and heat management with buildings.
• Increased demand for colours and logos in all sectors.

Conclusion: With the market developing and maturing, so more thought is also being applied to the growing segments within leisure and landscape with different products tailored to certain visual and sustainability requirements. Alongside a growing global sports sector there are still opportunities a plenty for new entrants and industry consolidation.

Whilst the future looks encouraging for the market overall, the industry's long term success hinges on balancing practicality with sustainability. By focusing on innovative, environmentally friendly solutions and adhering to high standards, the industry can address environmental concerns and public perceptions.

The complete 2024 Global Market for Artificial Turf report (AMI’s 10th, spanning 20 years) offers comprehensive insights and detailed analysis, essential for industry professionals aiming to make informed strategic decisions and capture emerging opportunities in this dynamic market.